Biological Dark Matter Isn’t Just in the Environment—It’s in Our Hospitals

Why a real blind spot in pandemic preparedness is undiagnosed patients

As an infectious disease fellow attending the Infectious Diseases Society of America’s 2008 meeting, I was struck by a point Arturo Casadevall made in his Kass Lecture—one that has stayed with me ever since. He described a fundamental asymmetry in infectious diseases: a gradual move away from specific microbiologic diagnoses.

He contrasted today’s syndrome-based approach—“community-acquired pneumonia”—with an earlier era in which clinicians not only diagnosed pneumococcal pneumonia, but identified the specific serotype to guide targeted serum therapy.

Today, armed with the blunt but powerful tool of broad-spectrum antibiotics, that level of diagnostic specificity has largely faded.

 

That idea maps closely to what I’ve called biological dark matter—the vast universe of microbes that cause human disease—but are never identified.

Most discussions of this problem focus outward: environmental sampling, wastewater surveillance, metagenomics of soil, animals, and air.

But there’s a more immediate—and more consequential—form of biological dark matter that gets far less attention:

The patients in our hospitals who never receive a specific diagnosis.

The Diagnostic Blind Spot

Every day, clinicians treat patients with:

  • Pneumonia of unclear etiology

  • Sepsis without a defined pathogen

  • Encephalitis with negative standard workups

  • Meningitis where cultures never yield an answer

These aren’t rare edge cases. They are routine.

We assign syndromic labels—“community-acquired pneumonia,” “viral syndrome,” “sepsis of unknown origin”—and move on. Treatment is empiric. Outcomes vary. A patient survives or they don’t. The chart closes without resolution. And the system moves on.

 Many unexplained deaths have infectious origins that are never recognized during life.

From a clinical standpoint, that’s often acceptable. From a biosecurity standpoint, it’s a profound vulnerability.

Because every one of those cases is a data point we are not fully capturing.

And those data points are exactly where new threats first appear.

The Cancer Contrast

 What makes this even more striking is that medicine already knows how to behave differently.

In oncology, diagnostic ambiguity is treated as unacceptable. Tumors are routinely characterized with extraordinary precision including histology, immunophenotyping, molecular markers, and genomic sequencing.

A lung cancer is not just “lung cancer”—it is EGFR-mutant, ALK-rearranged, PD-L1 high, or something else entirely. Therapy hinges on that specificity.

In infectious diseases, by contrast, we often accept far less resolution—even in critically ill patients. In many ICUs, roughly half of septic shock cases lack a microbiologic diagnosis, despite the presence of life-threatening illness.

We tolerate a level of diagnostic imprecision in infection that would be unthinkable in cancer.

That gap is not technological. It is structural.

Why we don’t look harder (even when we could)

It’s not because the tools don’t exist.

Advanced diagnostics—metagenomic sequencing, plasma microbial cell-free DNA assays like the Karius test—can identify pathogens that conventional testing misses.

But they are not used routinely. The reason is economic architecture.

Under Medicare’s Diagnosis-Related Group (DRG) system, hospitals receive fixed payments based on diagnosis. That creates a simple calculus:

  • Additional tests increase cost

  • High-end diagnostics are expensive

  • Identifying the exact pathogen often does not change reimbursement—or even management

This logic extends beyond advanced tools. Even multiplex respiratory panels are often scrutinized by administrators and insurers, sometimes requiring approval before they can be ordered.

So, the usual scenario is to end diagnostic investigation once the treatment plan is clear enough.

The system optimizes for efficiency, not discovery. And in doing so, it systematically suppresses diagnostic curiosity at the bedside.

The preparedness paradox

We invest heavily in surveillance systems designed to detect emerging threats:

  • Wastewater monitoring

  • Environmental sequencing

  • Wildlife pathogen discovery

These approaches are valuable—but noisy.

Most detected organisms:

  • Are not human pathogens

  • Will never cause disease

  • Or lack context for interpretation

This creates a paradox:

We are getting better at detecting what exists—but not necessarily what matters.

Meanwhile, the most relevant signal—unexplained human illness—remains under-characterized. These illnesses may represent the first foray of a pathogen into humans—and because they cause disease, they are not noise or benign viral chatter. Recall that the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic was first detected in two children who happened to seek care at facilities participating in influenza typing studies—not routine clinical settings in which the diagnosis would have been “viral syndrome” or influenza A.

A Different Surveillance Anchor: Syndromes without Answers

If biosecurity is about detecting threats that impact humans, then the most valuable dataset is not environmental—it is clinical.

Specifically:

  • Undiagnosed pneumonia

  • Culture-negative sepsis

  • Encephalitis of unknown origin

  • Atypical respiratory failure clusters

These are real-time manifestations of disease.

They already represent:

  • Pathogens we failed to detect

  • Known organisms behaving in unexpected ways

  • Or genuinely novel threats

Focusing here does something environmental surveillance cannot:

It applies a filter of human pathogenicity by default.

A Pandemic Preparedness Constraint

Pandemic preparedness will always be constrained if:

  • We tolerate large fractions of serious infections going undiagnosed

  • We prioritize environmental detection over clinical attribution

  • We fail to integrate advanced diagnostics where uncertainty is highest

There are companies trying to push surveillance closer to the point of care by turning hospitals themselves into biosensors. Using genomic analysis of wastewater—and increasingly air and environmental sampling—they aim to detect pathogens circulating within a facility before they are clinically recognized, linking those signals back to patient cases and potential reservoirs.

Wastewater may tell us what’s circulating.

Astute clinicians may sound the alarm when they uncover a zebra cloaked in horse’s hair.

But undiagnosed patients tell us what’s dangerous before we know to look.

Any biothreat radar that does not encompass the biological dark matter within our health care facilities will remain fundamentally incomplete.

And until we align incentives, diagnostics, and surveillance around that reality, a significant portion of the biological world that matters most will remain—both scientifically and operationally—unknown.

 

 

The Return of the Primitive: The Anti-Vaccine Movement and the Crisis of Enlightenment

The dawn of the vaccine age began in 1796 when Edward Jenner developed the smallpox vaccine — a feat that would, 184 years later, lead to the complete eradication of that ancient scourge under D.A. Henderson's peerless leadership. What made Jenner's achievement remarkable was not only the outcome but its epistemological audacity: he synthesized folk observations made by farmers and country doctors about cowpox immunity and transformed them into a systematic, replicable intervention against one of humanity's most lethal adversaries. He accomplished this decades before Louis Pasteur codified the germ theory of disease. Jenner's vaccine was, in short, a triumph of the Enlightenment — empirical, universal, and lifesaving.

But Jenner did not begin from nothing. Before his vaccine, humans had already devised a crude form of immunization called variolation — an Asian and African practice of engrafting material from smallpox sufferers into a small incision on a healthy person. The logic was pragmatic: one's odds of surviving a controlled exposure were far better than surviving the disease in the usual, uncontrolled manner. Lady Mary Wortley Montague introduced the practice to England in 1720; in Boston, Dr. Zabdiel Boylston and Cotton Mather championed it against fierce opposition. Variolation worked — but imperfectly. It could spark outbreaks and cause severe infections. Jenner's observation that milkmaids who had contracted cowpox seemed entirely resistant to smallpox — and his systematic testing of that observation — transformed this folk wisdom into the foundation of modern immunology.

And yet, almost immediately, it produced its shadow. The anti-vaccine movement was born alongside vaccination itself, an insidious countermovement grounded in the rejection of precisely what made Jenner's achievement possible: the application of reason and science to the natural world. That shadow has never fully disappeared. Instead, it has grown, transformed, and in our own era reached what can only be called its zenith — wielding significant political power and institutional influence. To understand how we arrived here, one must trace the movement not merely as a series of recurring myths but as a coherent ideological tradition rooted in a deep ambivalence — and at times open hostility — toward modernity itself.

From Cow Parts to Conspiracy: The Rhetoric of Anti-Vaccination

The early vocabulary of the anti-vaccine movement was visceral and instinctive. Critics of Jenner's vaccine portrayed it as poison derived from animals; popular cartoons of the era depicted recipients sprouting cow parts after inoculation. The objection was, at its core, a recoiling from the unnatural — a revulsion against the idea that a human being might be deliberately altered by contact with animal matter. This was not a scientific argument. It was an aesthetic and moral one.

From this foundation, anti-vaccine leagues formed across England, Europe, and North America through the 19th century. In 1885, one such organization helped instigate a riot in Montreal over compulsory smallpox vaccination. The rhetoric expanded its philosophical reach, encompassing the principle of bodily autonomy — notably, the term "conscientious objector" originated not with pacifists but with early anti-vaccine activists, who demanded the right to refuse state-mandated medical intervention. This thread would remain a persistent, if sometimes dormant, strand in anti-vaccine ideology.

Nor was opposition confined to the fringes. Andrew Taylor Still, the founder of osteopathy, called the smallpox vaccine a "hopeless failure." D.D. Palmer, the founder of chiropractic, described vaccination as "the very height of absurdity" — injecting people with a "filthy animal poison." That two founders of major alternative medicine traditions were prominent anti-vaccine voices is not incidental. The anti-vaccine movement has always drawn sustenance from systems of thought that position themselves against the mainstream scientific model of disease.

By the 20th century, the movement had added a more intellectually sophisticated grievance: the contention that the scientific method is not a universal truth but merely one cultural approach among many — valid, perhaps, from within a particular paradigm, but not binding on those who reason from different premises. This is the terrain of postmodernism, and its infiltration into vaccine skepticism represents a critical inflection point in the movement's intellectual history.

Postmodernism as Pathogen

Postmodernism, in its academic form, mounted a sustained critique of what it called "metanarratives" — grand systems of explanation claiming universal validity. Science, and particularly post-World War II science, was a primary target. The association of scientific authority with thalidomide, nuclear weapons, and industrial pollution gave intellectual credibility to a broader suspicion of scientific institutions. As the sociologist Ulrich Beck wrote in The Risk Society, the sciences are not merely observers of civilizational risk but are deeply complicit in producing it, serving as what he described as legitimizing patrons of global industrial contamination.

From this postmodern framework emerged what scholars have called standpoint theory: the idea that truth is not objective and universal but situated within the particular identity, experience, and power relations of the observer. You cannot stand outside your own paradigm to achieve a "view from nowhere." Therefore, the scientific consensus is not truth — it is one cultural approach among many, reflecting the power of those who produced it. Science becomes, in Beck's phrase, a "branch office for politics, ethics, business… in the garb of numbers."

These ideas rarely reach the public in their academic form; instead, they diffuse culturally through philosophical transmission belts, shaping individuals' thoughts about expertise, authority, and truth.

The consequences for vaccine discourse are direct and profound. If no single source of truth holds authority, then "disinformation" becomes merely a competing version of information. Expertise is flattened; everyone becomes their own expert. The injunction to "do your own research" is not anti-intellectual so much as it is a democratic extension of postmodern epistemology — each person constructing their own truth from local narratives, personal stories, and values. In this framework, vaccine opposition is not ignorance; it is an alternative explanatory model, one more compatible with the values of those who hold it. The movement doesn't reject science wholesale — it deploys scientific-sounding language, cites studies (however fraudulent), invokes informed consent and patient autonomy (concepts from within medical ethics), and demands "more research." It conducts itself as if it were doing science while refusing science's conclusions. That's not mere ignorance — it is what philosopher Michel Foucault deemed "counter-conduct" — a form of resistance that does not simply oppose power but also appropriates the language and logic of the dominant system while subverting its conclusions.

What is striking, and worth naming directly, is that the philosophical infrastructure of modern vaccine refusal was built largely by intellectuals who the average anti-vaccine advocate likely has never heard of, but upon whose ideas they rely. Beck alleged complicity between science and industrial harm. Foucault's concept of biopower — the state's administration of bodies and populations in the name of health — illuminates real mechanisms of control, and his related idea of "counter-conducts" describes precisely how vaccine refusal operates: not as simple ignorance but as a deliberate refusal of the conduct that biopolitical governance demands, employing the language of informed consent and bodily autonomy from within the medical system itself. Ivan Illich, in Medical Nemesis, mounted the most direct attack: that modern medicine had become a counterproductive institution, generating clinical, social, and cultural iatrogenesis — harm from treatment, medicalization of ordinary life, and the destruction of people's autonomous capacity to heal. Paul Feyerabend, in Against Method, completes the demolition: science, he argued, has no privileged method that distinguishes it from other ways of knowing, and democratic societies should treat it as one tradition among many.

Eureka Day and the Progressive Anti-Vaxxer

Jonathan Spector's play Eureka Day, written in 2018 and inspired by the 2014 Disneyland measles outbreak — itself a direct consequence of declining vaccination rates in affluent California communities — dramatizes the anti-vaccine movement in its pre-COVID incarnation, and the portrait is deliberately specific: the archetypal vaccine skeptic of the late 20th and early 21st century was not a conspiracy theorist or a political reactionary. She was a progressive, educated, Berkeley-adjacent parent — committed to inclusivity and natural living, environmentalism, deeply suspicious of pharmaceutical corporations, and inclined to trust her own research and her community's collective wisdom over the pronouncements of a medical establishment she viewed as captured by power and profit.

This portrait was grounded in epidemiological reality. At the time Eureka Day was written, states like Mississippi and West Virginia — not typically associated with progressive culture — had among the highest childhood vaccination rates in the country. The public health community's anxieties centered on places like Marin County, California; the Pacific Northwest; and organic-food-oriented suburban enclaves. The anti-vaccine movement had, in this period, a coherent if tragic internal logic: it emerged from communities that distrusted institutional authority, that prized bodily autonomy and natural processes, that had forgotten the toll vaccine preventable disease had exacted in decades past, and that had absorbed enough postmodern epistemology — often through elite education — to feel justified in rejecting consensus science as a form of power rather than a form of knowledge.

COVID and the Great Tribal Migration

The COVID-19 pandemic shattered this political geography. Opposition to pandemic restrictions — lockdowns, mask mandates, business closures — became entangled, in the minds of many, with opposition to COVID-era vaccines. The bundling was not logically necessary: one can oppose lockdowns while accepting vaccines, or vice versa. But the pandemic handed anti-vaccine ideologues something potent: a living illustration of Foucault's concept of biopower — the state's exercise of control over bodies and populations in the name of public health. For those already primed to see science as an instrument of power, the spectacle of governments mandating behaviors, restricting movement, and compelling vaccination confirmed every suspicion. In the superheated political environment of 2020 and beyond, nuance collapsed. Vaccine acceptance or refusal became a tribal marker, a signal of political identity rather than a medical decision.

The result was a demographic inversion. Political affiliation became a predictor of vaccine uptake in a way it had never been before. The vanguard of the anti-vaccine movement shifted — and by 2022 vaccine skepticism had become so intertwined with political identity that merely invoking science could be experienced as a personal attack. As a pediatrician quoted in the New York Times put it: "It is a culture. I feel like if I talk about science, then I'm going against their political identity." The new anti-vaxxer was no longer the crunchy Californian progressive but, increasingly, the conservative populist who viewed vaccine guidelines as instruments of government overreach.

Yet this transformation should not obscure the continuity beneath it. The philosophical infrastructure of anti-vaccine ideology — the suspicion of expertise, the assertion of personal epistemic sovereignty, the equation of scientific consensus with the exercise of power — was already in place, erected over decades by a tradition stretching from early anti-vaccine leagues to postmodern academic theory to online communities devoted to alternative health. COVID did not create this infrastructure. It merely handed it to a different political constituency.

The Legal Record and the Exemption Problem

The courts have long recognized what the anti-vaccine movement refuses to: that the individual's interest in refusing vaccination does not automatically override an other individual's right to be free from the transmission of serious communicable disease from the contagious. In Jacobson v. Massachusetts (1905), the Supreme Court upheld mandatory smallpox vaccination during an outbreak — with medical exemption and financial penalties for non-compliance. Three years later, the Anti-Vaccination League of America formed in direct response. In Zucht v. King (1922), the Court upheld vaccine requirements as a condition of school entrance. Prince v. Massachusetts (1944)established that parental authority, however important, is not absolute when a child's welfare is at stake.

This legal architecture is now under active assault — and West Virginia has become the central battleground. West Virginia is one of a small number of states that historically permitted only medical exemptions to its school vaccine requirements, with no religious or philosophical opt-out. That changed in 2023 when the legislature passed the Equal Protection for Religion Act, and in January 2025 when Governor Patrick Morrisey issued an executive order directing health officials to accept religious exemptions. The state Board of Education pushed back, instructing county schools to continue following existing law. The resulting litigation has been a case study in the fragility of vaccine policy when political will falters. Most recently, in April 2026, a Fourth Circuit panel — in a 2-1 decision authored by Judge J. Harvie Wilkinson, a Reagan appointee — reversed a federal district court injunction that had favored the anti-vaccine plaintiffs. Wilkinson's opinion restated the Jacobsonian principle with clarity and added pointedly that the parents challenging the mandate were not the only rights-holders at issue — that other parents have their own interest in not placing their children in school environments with significant numbers of unvaccinated peers.

The exemption data makes clear why this matters. States with easy non-medical exemption processes had 50% higher pertussis rates than those with stricter policies. Non-medical exemption rates were 2.3 times higher in states with lax administrative requirements. These are not abstractions. They are children hospitalized with a vaccine-preventable disease because a philosophical opt-out was one form away. The West Virginia saga — a governor undermining his own state's historically strong vaccine law in the middle of a national measles resurgence — is a microcosm of the broader capitulation now occurring at every level of government.

Science, Politics, and the Corruption of Authority

One reason the anti-vaccine movement has proven so difficult to defeat is that it can, at times, appeal to specific grievances rooted in real events. In 1955, Cutter Laboratories, one of the manufacturers selected to produce the Salk polio vaccine, failed to fully inactivate the virus in some batches. Fifty-six people were paralyzed and five died. In 1982, a television program called Vaccine Roulette linked the DTP vaccine to neurological disorders, galvanizing the anti-vaccine movement and helping birth the National Vaccine Information Center — until years later it was discovered that the affected children had Dravet Syndrome, a genetic condition, not a vaccine injury. In 1976, a national swine flu vaccination program was halted after approximately 500 cases of Guillain-Barré Syndrome emerged — roughly one additional case per 100,000 vaccinated people — though GBS is in fact more common following influenza infection itself than following vaccination, a fact anti-vaccine advocates reliably omit. Each of these incidents was investigated, corrected, and ultimately made vaccination safer. None of them justify rejecting vaccination. But they explain why some skepticism has found purchase in lived experience rather than mere ideology.

Beyond specific incidents, science has been infused with politics. Expertise and authority have, at times, been fused inappropriately — particularly when scientific imprimatur is deployed as an appeal to authority in debates where the underlying questions are not, in fact, primarily scientific. This is scientism: the overextension of scientific authority into domains where it cannot bear the weight placed upon it. The credibility of public health institutions erodes when they speak with false confidence, shift positions without adequate explanation, jettison nuance, or allow political considerations to shape their public communications.

However, despite legitimate concerns of scientism it cannot be denied that at the core of the current moment is an anti-Enlightenment ethos. Vaccines are a technological achievement that cascaded from the Enlightenment. They are now under an overtly irrational anti-human cultural and political attack.

Conclusion: The Persistent Primitive

Throughout its history, the anti-vaccine movement has taken on many identities — conservative and progressive, religious and secular, libertarian and communitarian — but one overarching principle has remained intact: an antipathy toward humans employing the tools of science to prevent infectious disease. The specific arguments change; the underlying posture of rejection and the Dark Ages-like denial of the benefits vaccine technology has had on human flourishing persists. It is an epistemological monkeywrenching, sabotaging the machinery of medicine not to protect something worth protecting but out of an atavistic and nihilistic hostility to human technological achievement itself.

Now, as this movement has reached its apotheosis and, in the persons of US Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and his accomplices, wields significant government power, the world of Eureka Day seems almost nostalgic — a time when vaccine skepticism was the province of well-meaning, if misguided, parents in progressive school communities, rather than a force capable of reshaping national health policy. But it would be foolish to treat that earlier moment as disconnected from the present one. The intellectual seeds were planted long ago, in the earliest cartoons of cow-part-sprouting vaccine recipients, in the postmodern seminar rooms where scientific authority was first systematically delegitimized, in the online forums where alternative truth-making was perfected. What we are experiencing today is not the birth of something new. It is the harvest of something very old and, in my analysis, evil.

The task for those committed to evidence-based medicine is not simply to rebut individual claims but to understand the deep epistemological anxieties that animate the movement — and to hold scientific institutions to a standard of transparency and intellectual honesty that makes those anxieties harder to exploit. Jenner's achievement was not only technical. It was a demonstration that human reason, carefully applied, can overcome nature's worst cruelties. Thomas Jefferson understood this when he wrote to Jenner directly: "You have erased from the calendar of human afflictions one of its greatest. Future nations will know by history only that the loathsome small-pox has existed and by you has been extirpated." Jefferson's confidence that smallpox would become a historical curiosity proved correct. That demonstration must be continually renewed — and continually defended.

 

Without Gilead, There Would be no Lenacapavir

The breakthrough HIV drug is real—but so is the truth about who made it possible and who gets to decide its value.

 Lenacapavir is one of the most novel advances in HIV therapeutics in years. It is a first-in-class capsid inhibitor that disrupts multiple stages of the viral lifecycle. By enabling long-acting pre-exposure prophylaxis, lenacapavir—though not a vaccine—may be the most important technological advance in HIV prevention to date.

That breakthrough, however, has become a flashpoint in a familiar—and increasingly contentious—debate: who gets to decide how a transformative drug is priced and distributed?

Gilead Sciences developed lenacapavir, shepherding it from concept through the long, failure-prone path of drug development to regulatory approval. That process is neither quick nor guaranteed. It requires massive capital investment, years of clinical trials, and the willingness to absorb losses when candidates fail—as most do. In this context, Gilead’s claim to the product is not incidental; it is foundational. Without the company’s investment and execution, lenacapavir would not exist as a usable therapy.

The conclusion is straightforward: Gilead has both the legal and moral right to determine how lenacapavir is priced and distributed. Pharmaceutical firms are not charities; they are commercial entities accountable to shareholders. Their ability to take on high-risk biomedical innovation depends on the expectation of returns when they succeed.

Critics often respond by pointing to the role of publicly funded science, particularly through the NIH. The argument is that taxpayer support, even indirectly, entitles the public to greater control over the resulting product. But this line of reasoning collapses under scrutiny. Government funding overwhelmingly supports basic science—the early, exploratory work that maps biological mechanisms and identifies potential targets. Such funding can crowd out private investment in basic science. In the case of lenacapavir, NIH-supported research contributed to understanding HIV capsid biology. It did not produce the drug itself, nor does the NIH hold any patent claim over it.

If the mere presence of upstream public funding were enough to render downstream products “public property,” then virtually every modern medicine would fall into that category.

These are not new arguments. During the 2016 debate over pneumonia vaccine pricing, similar claims were leveled against pharmaceutical companies. In a piece I wrote at the time, I argued that efforts by advocacy groups to pressure companies like Pfizer were less about specific funding claims and more about a broader discomfort with the idea of profit in medicine. You can read that essay here: Pfizer Should Resist Doctors Without Borders’ Bullying, where I make a similar argument. The contours of this debate have not changed much since. Certain groups have continued to push for lower prices, sometimes even rejecting donations.

In truth, the NIH funding argument often functions as a smokescreen. Even if lenacapavir had emerged with no connection whatsoever to taxpayer-funded science, many of the same critics would object to Gilead’s pricing and distribution decisions. The criterion to silence them would only be met if Gilead actually lost money on lenacapavir.

The bottom line is simple, even if it is uncomfortable for some: without Gilead, there would be no lenacapavir. If we deprive pharmaceutical companies of the profits they earn from drugs they create, we will be depriving ourselves of the next generation of life-saving treatments.

Vaccines as Innovation

A recent STAT News opinion piece by Penn State University’s Cory Anderson focused on religious opposition to vaccines contains a very fascinating, insightful, and likely true passage. Anderson writes:

The Amish belief system privileges the notion that when individuals highly esteem certain innovations, religious purity may erode. For example, people first making a change, such as getting vaccinated, may also prefer other changes — work tools, behavioral practices, or new representations of identity in dress, transportation modes, or home styles.

Vaccines are technological innovations that merit being esteemed as tools to improve one’s life, even more so than airplanes and iPhones. Vaccines represent one of humankind’s greatest achievements and are testament to human reason’s ability to gain mastery over an inhospitable nature. When one recognizes the grand scale intellectual integrations regarding the human immune system and the germ theory of disease that were needed to develop even the idea of vaccines (let alone their concrete development), it should give one pause regarding the grandeur and potential of human thought.

It would be correct to ask oneself the question: “If a human technology such as a vaccine can make one’s life better, what other problems can the unfettered human mind solve and what other technologies can improve one’s life?”

If that puts one at odds with any culture (Amish or otherwise) that eschews human reason in favor of mysticism, supernaturalism, and conformity, so much the better.

Imagine How Embarrassing it would be to show DA Henderson the headlines from 2025: 9 years without him

On a recent plane ride, I watched Karate Kid Legends. The latest installment of The Karate Kid saga is focused on a Kung Fu master, who knew Mr. Miyagi, seeking out Daniel LaRusso. Part of the theme of the movie is disseminating the knowledge of one’s mentor, in this case Daniel continuing to teach karate in the Miyagi-do style. It made me think of D.A. Henderson and the principles of infectious disease and epidemiology he instilled in me. He has now been gone for 9 years (this post is regretfully a little late—was intended for August 19) and I try my best to think about how DA would help me think through the problems in infectious disease when I discuss these topics with the media, colleagues, students, and others. I hope I do his mentorship of me justice.

Each year, I think about what guidance he would give me (and the country and the world) on the happening infectious disease. I, for one, would be embarrassed to show him the headlines of 2025 as we have seen a major backslide from 2016, when he died. I have always been puzzled how societies turn away from their scientific and technological achievements, but I am now puzzled any longer because we are seeing it in real time.

So the questions I would pose to D.A. now have en enhanced urgency and his answers are needed more than ever.

Here are 5 questions I would ask him:

1.        Are the politics of the anti-vaccine movement too strong to get out of this mess? The anti-vaccine movement — which used to be a creature of the far-left—has now completely infected the leadership of the Republican Party. Do things have to collapse before they get better? Can anything get Republican leaders to disavow this group and stand on principle versus political expediency. How can the originator of Operation Warp Speed stand for this?

2.        Do you think the U.S. will lose it’s measles elimination status? The largest outbreak, centered in West Texas, is over but smaller outbreaks are continuing — some of which were seeded by that one. Measles elimination status is depending on no-ongoing transmission lasting for at least a year? It’s unlikely that PAHO retains its elimination status as the Canadian and Mexican outbreaks are much worse than the ones here.

3.        I always ask about polio. It seems to be unraveling more and more with increased wild cases in Pakistan and more vaccine-derived cases popping up. Shouldn’t this pivot to being only about wild polio? Or is the ideal solution the one you always advocated — just driving paralytic polio down to level where it is no longer a major health problems for the world and continue polio immunization alongside other routine childhood vaccines.

4.        What is going to be the trajectory of the current clade of H5N1 circulating in poultry farms, dairy cattle farms, and in numerous mammalian species. Human cases have been, mostly, mild so it seems that this clade of the virus has serious constraints in causing severe disease in humans (vs. other mammals). Is H7N9 still more concerning or is H5N1’s threat elevated as it is in more places and in more mammals given it the opportunity to mutate or reassort with a seasonal virus?

5.        What is the status of biological weapons work? Is our biodefense capacity resilient enough for 2025. It’s likely that Russia, North Korea, and China all have offensive bioweapons program. Is our biodefense apparatus — which must be tightly integrated to our public health systems — up to the task? Is the White House engaged enough or possessing of the expertise to handle these threats? What is the first thing to focus on that could strengthen the US in this regard?

There are many more questions to ask DA. But these are the first five that came to mind.

I’ll leave you with this, just think for a moment if you knew DA or ever heard him speak (or look him up on YouTube): can you imagine his booming, authoritative, and incisive voice addressing the irrational nihilism of RFK, Jr? That image should make you smile (I know it has the effect on me).